Modelling the transmission of Mpox with case study in Nigeria and Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, University of Medical Sciences, Ondo City, Ondo State, Nigeria.

2 Center for Ecology of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America.

3 Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of South Africa, South Africa.

4 Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Technology Owerri, Nigeria.

Abstract

This paper focuses on the dynamics of Mpox, a viral disease, in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), employing mathematical modeling and parameter estimation techniques. Utilizing optimization methods, the model parameters were calibrated to match the observed Mpox cases and deaths. The basic reproduction number Ro was calculated for each region, indicating the disease's transmission potential, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key parameters influencing disease outcomes. Subsequently, numerical simulations were performed to assess the impact of intervention scenarios on Mpox cases and deaths. The primary goal is to create mathematical methods that can evaluate the risk of Mpox transmission and implement control measures in Nigeria and DRC, potentially extending the findings to other countries. Results show that reducing parameters related to transmission and progression significantly decreases disease burden, highlighting the importance of preventive measures. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and public health officials in designing effective strategies to mitigate Mpox's impact on human populations.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Computational Methods for Differential Equations

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 12 August 2024

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History

  • Receive Date: 13 June 2024
  • Revise Date: 25 July 2024
  • Accept Date: 12 August 2024

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